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Figure 1 | BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making

Figure 1

From: What is the point: will screening mammography save my life?

Figure 1

The life-saving absolute benefit or reduction in absolute death risk from repeated screening mammography according to age. Data are from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program including women ages 40 to 65 in five-year age increments. The first column in each age group shows the 2002–2004 cumulative 15-year development risk for breast cancer for average women. The 1978–1980 cumulative 15-year absolute death risk from breast cancer (2nd column) is higher than the 2002–2004 death risk (3rd column) due to screening effects and better therapy. We multiplied plausible values for relative risk reduction (RRR) of 10% to 30% from repeated screening by the screen-free absolute death risk (4th column) to achieve estimates of the reduction in absolute death risk (RADR) from repeated screening (5th to 9th columns). The RADR is the same as the life-saving absolute benefit or absolute risk reduction. Starting at age 50 and 20% RRR, the RADR is 1.8/1000. The numerator is the same as lives saved per 1000 women screened. Between the starting ages of 40 and 55, the life-saving absolute benefit from mammography more than doubles, corresponding to the increased death risk. Between the starting ages of 50 and 60, the RRR from repeated screening is about 100 times the absolute risk reduction since the screen-free absolute death risk is approximately 1%.

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