Fig. 4

In silico trial of natalizumab. A Kaplan–Meier plot shows simulated patients’ survival to first relapse including 95% confidence intervals for the natalizumab and placebo treatment groups. Note that the duration mirrors AFFIRM maximal time span of 116 weeks, whereas most analyses were performed at 104 weeks. B Individual leukocyte concentrations. Means (over length of trial, per DP) of the total number of B cells versus total number of CD4 T cells. C Individual cytokine concentrations. Means (over length of trial, per DP) of the IL-2 molecules present in the DP versus TGF-β. D Individual antibody concentrations. Means (over length of trial, per DP) of the IgA, IgG and IgM molecules. Blue = natalizumab group; Orange = control (treatment naive) group. In B–D, all points are scaled by the individual’s relapse activity, so that a larger dot indicates a DP with more cumulative loss of oligodendrocyte and thus a higher relapse rate