Fig. 5

Mean monthly ED attendances per CCG forecasted over a 4-year period under 5 different scenarios. Scenarios: ‘do-nothing’ (green dashed line); increase 111 capacity by 10% (red line); increase ambulance capacity by 10% (blue line); increase GP capacity by 10% (purple line); if population health measures are less than the baseline average, increase them by 0.2 points per year until they reach the baseline average (grey line). The black dashed line represents the transition from baseline values (not predicted) to values predicted using the MGSR. All lines correspond to a 4-month rolling average of the monthly values